Approaches

Approaches and methodologies for building epistemic infrastructure:

Forecasting Approaches:

• Prediction MarketsApproachPrediction MarketsPrediction markets achieve Brier scores of 0.16-0.24 (15-25% better than polls) by aggregating dispersed information through financial incentives, with platforms handling $1-3B annually. For AI saf...Quality: 56/100: Market-based aggregation of probabilistic beliefs
• AI-Augmented ForecastingApproachAI-Augmented ForecastingAI-augmented forecasting combines AI computational strengths with human judgment, achieving 5-15% Brier score improvements and 50-200x cost reductions compared to human-only forecasting. However, A...Quality: 54/100: Using AI to enhance prediction capabilities
• AI-Human Hybrid SystemsApproachAI-Human Hybrid SystemsHybrid AI-human systems achieve 15-40% error reduction across domains through six design patterns, with evidence from Meta (23% false positive reduction), Stanford Healthcare (27% diagnostic improv...Quality: 91/100: Combining human judgment with AI capabilities

Deliberation & Coordination:

• AI-Assisted DeliberationApproachAI-Assisted DeliberationComprehensive analysis of AI-assisted deliberation platforms showing 15-35% opinion change rates, with Taiwan's vTaiwan achieving 80% policy implementation across 26 issues and Anthropic's Constitu...Quality: 63/100: Technology-mediated group reasoning
• Coordination TechnologiesApproachCoordination TechnologiesComprehensive analysis of coordination mechanisms for AI safety showing racing dynamics could compress safety timelines by 2-5 years, with $500M+ government investment in AI Safety Institutes achie...Quality: 91/100: Tools for collective action and decision-making

Verification & Authentication:

• Content AuthenticationApproachContent AuthenticationContent authentication via C2PA and watermarking (10B+ images) offers superior robustness to failing detection methods (55% accuracy), with EU AI Act mandates by August 2026 driving adoption among ...Quality: 58/100: Provenance and authenticity verification
• Deepfake DetectionApproachDeepfake DetectionComprehensive analysis of deepfake detection showing best commercial detectors achieve 78-87% in-the-wild accuracy vs 96%+ in controlled settings, with Deepfake-Eval-2024 benchmark revealing 45-50%...Quality: 91/100: AI-generated content identification

Design Sketches for Collective Epistemics (Forethought Foundation, 2025):

• Community Notes for Everything: Cross-platform AI-generated context annotations on misleading content
• Rhetoric Highlighting: Automated detection of persuasive-but-misleading language and citation misrepresentation
• Reliability Tracking: Topic-specific track records for public actors’ claims, predictions, and promises
• Epistemic Virtue Evals: Benchmarks testing AI systems for calibration, sycophancy resistance, and honesty
• Provenance Tracing: Infrastructure for transparent knowledge genealogy and claim reliability assessment

See also Epistemic InfrastructureApproachEpistemic InfrastructureComprehensive analysis of epistemic infrastructure showing AI fact-checking achieves 85-87% accuracy at $0.10-$1.00 per claim versus $50-200 for human verification, while Community Notes reduces mi...Quality: 59/100 for the broader context of these approaches.