Long-term Lock-in
Page Status
Last edited:2026-01-03 (5 months ago)
Words:112
Structure:
📊 1📈 0🔗 3📚 0•11%Score: 4/15
Issues (1):
- StaleLast edited 164 days ago - may need review
ATM Scenario
Long-term Lock-in
Model RoleDegradation Scenario
Primary DriversAI Ownership, Civilizational Competence
Sub-scenariosValues lock-in, Power lock-in, Epistemic lock-in
Related
ATM Factors
ATM Parameters
ATM Scenarios
Long-term Lock-in refers to scenarios where AI enables the permanent entrenchment of certain conditions - whether values, power structures, or epistemic environments. Unlike acute catastrophes, lock-inRiskLock-inComprehensive analysis of AI lock-in scenarios where values, systems, or power structures become permanently entrenched. Documents evidence including Big Tech's 66-70% cloud control, AI surveillanc...Quality: 64/100 may unfold gradually and may not be immediately recognized as harmful.
Variants
Section titled “Variants”Key Root Factors
Section titled “Key Root Factors”Loading diagram...
Model Estimates
Section titled “Model Estimates”| Score | Factor | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 85 | ↑ AI Ownership | Ownership patterns directly shape what gets locked in |
| 80 | ↑ AI Uses | Where AI is deployed determines what structures get entrenched |
| 75 | ↔ Civilizational Competence | High competence could enable good or bad lock-in |
| 70 | ↑ AI Capabilities | More capable AI makes lock-in scenarios more feasible |
| 60 | ↑ Misalignment Potential | Misaligned AI could lock in bad values or power structures |
| 40 | ↑ Transition Turbulence | Crisis can entrench emergency powers and structures |
| 35 | ↑ Misuse Potential | Misuse could trigger authoritarian responses |
Dual Nature
Section titled “Dual Nature”Unlike other scenarios, lock-in is not inherently negative:
| Pole | Description |
|---|---|
| Positive | Beneficial values and institutions stabilized, protected from degradation |
| Negative | Authoritarian control, harmful ideologies, or stagnation permanently entrenched |
Outcomes
Section titled “Outcomes”Long-term Lock-in primarily affects:
- Long-term TrajectoryAi Transition Model ScenarioLong-term TrajectoryThis page contains only a React component reference with no actual content loaded. Cannot assess substance as no text, analysis, or information is present.: The quality and character of the post-transition future
- May contribute to Existential CatastropheAi Transition Model ScenarioExistential CatastropheThis page contains only a React component placeholder with no actual content visible for evaluation. The component would need to render content dynamically for assessment. if lock-in prevents course correction