Human-Caused Catastrophe
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Last edited:2026-01-03 (5 months ago)
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ATM Scenario
Human-Caused Catastrophe
Model RoleCatastrophic Scenario
Primary DriversMisuse Potential
Sub-scenariosState actor misuse, Rogue actor misuse
Related
ATM Factors
ATM Parameters
ATM Scenarios
Human-Caused Catastrophe refers to scenarios where humans deliberately use AI capabilities to cause mass harm. Unlike AI Takeover scenarios, the AI itself may be functioning as intended - the catastrophe arises from human misuse.
Variants
Section titled “Variants”Key Root Factors
Section titled “Key Root Factors”Loading diagram...
Factor Impact Scores
Section titled “Factor Impact Scores”90
↑ Misuse Potential
Core driver - misuse is the direct mechanism
65
↑ AI Capabilities
More capable AI enables more destructive misuse
60
↓ Civilizational Competence
Better governance reduces misuse risk
55
↑ Transition Turbulence
Instability creates more opportunities for misuse
55
↔ AI Uses
Some uses increase risk, others enable better coordination
45
↔ AI Ownership
Depends on who controls AI and their intentions
30
↑ Misalignment Potential
Indirect effect through unsafe AI tools being misused
Outcomes
Section titled “Outcomes”Human-Caused Catastrophe scenarios primarily lead to:
- Existential CatastropheAi Transition Model ScenarioExistential CatastropheThis page contains only a React component placeholder with no actual content visible for evaluation. The component would need to render content dynamically for assessment.: Mass casualty events, civilizational collapse
- May trigger Long-term Lock-inRiskLock-inComprehensive analysis of AI lock-in scenarios where values, systems, or power structures become permanently entrenched. Documents evidence including Big Tech's 66-70% cloud control, AI surveillanc...Quality: 64/100: Crisis enables authoritarian consolidation