Track Records

This section documents the epistemic track records of influential figures in AI. Understanding where experts have been right or wrong—and their patterns of over/underconfidence—helps calibrate how much weight to give their current views.

Available Track Records

Person	Summary	Key Pattern
Yann LeCunYann Lecun PredictionsComprehensive compilation of Yann LeCun's predictions showing he was correct on long-term architectural intuitions (neural networks, self-supervised learning dominance, radiologists not replaced by...Quality: 60/100	Strong on long-term architectural intuitions; underestimates near-term LLM capabilities	Consistent skeptic
Sam AltmanSam Altman PredictionsComprehensive tracking of Sam Altman's predictions shows he's directionally correct on AI trajectory and cost declines (10x/year validated) but consistently wrong on specific timelines (self-drivin...Quality: 60/100	Directionally correct on AI trajectory; overoptimistic on specific timelines	Safety rhetoric vs. deployment tension
Eliezer YudkowskyEliezer Yudkowsky PredictionsComprehensive tracking of Eliezer Yudkowsky's predictions shows clear early errors (Singularity by 2021, nanotech timelines), vindication on AI generalization (2008 FOOM debate), and acknowledged u...Quality: 61/100	Early timeline errors; vindicated on AI generalization; core doom predictions unfalsifiable	Updated from early overconfidence
Elon MuskElon Musk PredictionsComprehensive documentation of Elon Musk's prediction track record showing systematic overoptimism on timelines (FSD predictions missed by 6+ years across 15+ instances, AGI predictions shift forwa...Quality: 66/100	Prescient safety warnings; consistently missed product timelines by 6+ years	Shifting goalposts

Methodology

Each track record page documents:

1. Resolved predictions - Claims that can now be evaluated with ✅/❌/⚠️ status
2. Pending predictions - Testable claims with target dates
3. Unfalsifiable claims - Positions that cannot be empirically tested
4. Accuracy analysis - Patterns of where the person is right/wrong
5. Position evolution - How their views have changed over time

All claims include source citations where available.