Analytical Models
Overview
Section titled “Overview”Analytical models provide structured frameworks for thinking about AI risks. Each model offers a different lens—probability decomposition, comparative analysis, or timeline projection—for understanding specific risk scenarios.
Models are meant to be exploratory and illustrative rather than definitive. They help identify key uncertainties, structure thinking, and enable comparison of different assumptions.
Model Categories
Section titled “Model Categories”| Category | Description | Count |
|---|---|---|
| Risk Models | Alignment failure modes and their likelihood | 7 |
| Timeline Models | When specific risks might materialize | 4 |
| Cascade Models | How risks propagate and amplify | 5 |
| Framework Models | General frameworks for analyzing AI risk | 4 |
| Intervention Models | Evaluating and prioritizing interventions | 4 |
| Dynamics Models | Competitive dynamics and interactions | 7 |
| Impact Models | Magnitude and scope of AI impacts | 3 |
| Domain Models | Risks in specific application domains | 9 |
| Threshold Models | Critical thresholds and tipping points | 4 |
| Race Models | Competitive races in AI development | 2 |
| Governance Models | Governance challenges and responses | 6 |
| Safety Models | Safety practices and tradeoffs | 5 |
| Analysis Models | Meta-level risk analysis frameworks | 6 |
| Societal Models | Effects on society and human behavior | 11 |
Browse All Models
Section titled “Browse All Models”78Total Models
72Avg Importance
70With Ratings
3.7Avg Novelty
78 of 78 results
| 72 | Lock-in Mechanisms Model | — | — | — | — | — | 2025-12 |
| 92 | AI Risk Portfolio Analysis | Prioritization Framework | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 2025-12 |
| 82 | Worldview-Intervention Mapping | Strategic Framework | 5 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 2025-12 |
| 87 | Intervention Timing Windows | Timing Framework | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2025-12 |
| 82 | Deceptive Alignment Decomposition Model | Probability Decomposition | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 2025-12 |
| 90 | Carlsmith's Six-Premise Argument | Probability Decomposition | 3 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 2026-01 |
| 82 | Mesa-Optimization Risk Analysis | Risk Framework | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2025-12 |
| 82 | Goal Misgeneralization Probability Model | Probability Model | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2025-12 |
| 78 | Reward Hacking Taxonomy and Severity Model | Taxonomy + Severity Analysis | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 2025-12 |
| 85 | Power-Seeking Emergence Conditions Model | Formal Analysis | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2025-12 |
| 78 | Instrumental Convergence Framework | Theoretical Framework | 2 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 2025-12 |
| 84 | Scheming Likelihood Assessment | Probability Assessment | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 2025-12 |
| 85 | Corrigibility Failure Pathways | Causal Pathways | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 2025-12 |
| 78 | Bioweapons Attack Chain Model | Probability Decomposition | 3 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2025-12 |
| 85 | AI Uplift Assessment Model | Comparative Analysis | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 2025-12 |
| 84 | AI-Bioweapons Timeline Model | Timeline Projection | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2025-12 |
| 82 | Racing Dynamics Impact Model | Causal Analysis | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2025-12 |
| 82 | Multipolar Trap Dynamics Model | Game Theory Analysis | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 2025-12 |
| 77 | Flash Dynamics Threshold Model | Threshold Analysis | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 2025-12 |
| 75 | Expertise Atrophy Progression Model | Progressive Decay Model | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 2025-12 |
| 64 | Economic Disruption Impact Model | System Dynamics | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 2025-12 |
| 85 | AI Proliferation Risk Model | Diffusion Analysis | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 2025-12 |
| 64 | Winner-Take-All Concentration Model | Network Effects Analysis | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 2025-12 |
| 72 | Cyber Offense-Defense Balance Model | Comparative Analysis | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2025-12 |
| 78 | Autonomous Cyber Attack Timeline | Timeline Projection | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2025-12 |
| 78 | Autonomous Weapons Escalation Model | Risk Decomposition | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2025-12 |
| 62 | LAWS Proliferation Model | Timeline Projection | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2025-12 |
| 52 | Disinformation Detection Arms Race Model | Comparative Analysis | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2025-12 |
| 62 | Electoral Impact Assessment Model | Impact Assessment | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2025-12 |
| 64 | AI Surveillance and Regime Durability Model | Causal Analysis | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2025-12 |
| 45 | Surveillance Chilling Effects Model | Impact Assessment | 3 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 2025-12 |
| 62 | Deepfakes Authentication Crisis Model | Timeline Projection | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 2025-12 |
| 63 | Trust Cascade Failure Model | Cascade Analysis | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 2025-12 |
| 62 | Sycophancy Feedback Loop Model | Feedback Loop Analysis | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 2025-12 |
| 74 | Authentication Collapse Timeline Model | Timeline Projection | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 2025-12 |
| 42 | Expertise Atrophy Cascade Model | Cascade Analysis | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 2025-12 |
| 62 | Epistemic Collapse Threshold Model | Threshold Model | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 2025-12 |
| 44 | Reality Fragmentation Network Model | Network Effects | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2025-12 |
| — | Racing Dynamics Game Theory Model | Game Theory | — | — | — | — | 2025-12 |
| — | Multipolar Trap Coordination Model | Systems Dynamics / Coordination Theory | — | — | — | — | 2025-12 |
| — | Winner-Take-All Market Dynamics Model | Market Structure Analysis | — | — | — | — | 2025-12 |
| — | Concentration of Power Systems Model | Systems Dynamics | — | — | — | — | 2025-12 |
| — | Lock-in Irreversibility Model | Path Dependence / Threshold Analysis | — | — | — | — | 2025-12 |
| — | Economic Disruption Structural Model | Labor Economics / Macroeconomic Model | — | — | — | — | 2025-12 |
| — | AI Capability Proliferation Model | Diffusion Model / Information Economics | — | — | — | — | 2025-12 |
| 84 | Risk Activation Timeline Model | Timeline Projection | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 2025-12 |
| 85 | Capability Threshold Model | Threshold Analysis | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 2025-12 |
| 87 | Warning Signs Model | Monitoring Framework | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4.5 | 2025-12 |
| 62 | Authoritarian Tools Diffusion Model | Diffusion Analysis | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2025-12 |
| 64 | Consensus Manufacturing Dynamics Model | Manipulation Analysis | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2025-12 |
| 74 | Irreversibility Threshold Model | Threshold Analysis | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 2025-12 |
| 54 | Preference Manipulation Drift Model | Behavioral Dynamics | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 2025-12 |
| 52 | Trust Erosion Dynamics Model | Trust Dynamics | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2025-12 |
| 72 | Automation Bias Cascade Model | Cascade Analysis | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2025-12 |
| 45 | Cyber Psychosis Cascade Model | Population Risk Model | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2025-12 |
| 42 | Fraud Sophistication Curve Model | Capability Progression | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2025-12 |
| 92 | Intervention Effectiveness Matrix | Prioritization Framework | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 2025-12 |
| 66 | Lab Incentives Model | Incentive Analysis | 3 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2025-12 |
| 82 | Risk Interaction Matrix | Interaction Framework | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2025-12 |
| 84 | Safety Research Value Model | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 2025-12 |
| 82 | Capabilities-to-Safety Pipeline Model | Talent Pipeline Analysis | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 2025-12 |
| 78 | Compounding Risks Analysis Model | Systems Analysis | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2025-12 |
| 83 | Defense in Depth Model | Defense Framework | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 2025-12 |
| 62 | Institutional Adaptation Speed Model | Adaptation Dynamics | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 2025-12 |
| 82 | International Coordination Game Model | Game Theory | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2025-12 |
| 58 | Media-Policy Feedback Loop Model | Feedback Loop Analysis | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 2025-12 |
| 44 | Post-Incident Recovery Model | Recovery Dynamics | 4 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2025-12 |
| 43 | Public Opinion Evolution Model | Attitude Dynamics | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2025-12 |
| 84 | Risk Cascade Pathways Model | Cascade Mapping | 4 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 2025-12 |
| 82 | Risk Interaction Network Model | Network Analysis | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 2025-12 |
| 72 | Safety-Capability Tradeoff Model | Tradeoff Analysis | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2025-12 |
| 87 | Safety Research Allocation Model | Resource Optimization | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 2025-12 |
| 82 | Safety Researcher Gap Model | Supply-Demand Analysis | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 2025-12 |
| 64 | Whistleblower Dynamics Model | Incentive Analysis | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 2025-12 |
| 75 | Parameter Interaction Network Model | Network Analysis | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2025-12 |
| 72 | Safety Culture Equilibrium Model | Game-Theoretic Analysis | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2025-12 |
| 70 | Regulatory Capacity Threshold Model | Threshold Analysis | 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 2025-12 |
| 80 | Alignment Robustness Trajectory Model | Trajectory Analysis | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2025-12 |
Using These Models
Section titled “Using These Models”Models are designed to:
- Structure thinking about complex, uncertain scenarios
- Identify cruxes where disagreement is concentrated
- Enable sensitivity analysis on key assumptions
- Communicate risk reasoning to others
They are not designed to provide precise probability estimates—the underlying uncertainties are too large for that.
Contributing
Section titled “Contributing”Models should include:
- Clear statement of what’s being modeled
- Key assumptions and their justification
- Decomposition or analysis structure
- Estimates with uncertainty ranges
- Sensitivity to key parameters
- Limitations and caveats