Forecasting

Overview

This section compiles forecasts about AI development trajectories, capability timelines, and safety outcomes. Tracking predictions over time helps calibrate expectations and identify who has good track records.

Forecast Categories

AGI Development

When might transformative AI arrive?

• Expert surveys and estimates
• Compute-based projections
• Historical accuracy of past forecasts

AGI Timeline

Detailed timeline predictions:

• 2025-2030 scenarios
• 2030-2040 scenarios
• Post-2040 considerations

Key Forecast Sources

Source	Focus	Method	Track Record
MetaculusOrganizationMetaculusMetaculus is a reputation-based forecasting platform with 1M+ predictions showing AGI probability at 25% by 2027 and 50% by 2031 (down from 50 years away in 2020). Analysis finds good short-term ca...Quality: 50/100	AI milestones	Prediction market	Good calibration
Epoch AIOrganizationEpoch AIEpoch AI is a research organization dedicated to producing rigorous, data-driven forecasts and analysis about artificial intelligence progress, with particular focus on compute trends, training dat...	Compute trends	Trend extrapolation	Strong on hardware
Expert surveys	Timeline estimates	Elicitation	Variable
Superforecasters	Specific questions	Tournament forecasting	Best overall

Current Consensus Ranges

Question	Low	Median	High
P(AGI by 2030)	10%	25%	50%
P(AGI by 2040)	40%	65%	85%
P(Catastrophe	AGI)	5%	15%

Estimates represent rough synthesis of public expert views; wide disagreement exists.

Forecasting Best Practices

• Track calibration - Did predictions come true at stated probabilities?
• Decompose questions - Break complex questions into more tractable components
• Update regularly - Revise forecasts as new information arrives
• Acknowledge uncertainty - Use ranges, not point estimates