Parameter Table

Root Factors

22 of 22 results

Parameter	Parent Factor	Changeability	Uncertainty	X-Risk	Trajectory
Technical AI Safety	AIMisalignment Potential	45	60	85	70
AI Governance	AIMisalignment Potential	55	50	60	75
Lab Safety Practices	AIMisalignment Potential	65	40	50	45
Governance	SocietyCivilizational Competence	35	45	55	70
Epistemics	SocietyCivilizational Competence	25	55	40	65
Adaptability	SocietyCivilizational Competence	30	50	50	60
Compute	AIAI Capabilities	30	35	70	80
Algorithms	AIAI Capabilities	20	55	75	85
Adoption	AIAI Capabilities	40	40	45	70
Economic Stability	SocietyTransition Turbulence	40	50	35	55
Racing Intensity	SocietyTransition Turbulence	50	45	65	50
Biological Threat Exposure	SocietyMisuse Potential	45	60	80	40
Cyber Threat Exposure	SocietyMisuse Potential	35	50	55	45
Robot Threat Exposure	SocietyMisuse Potential	40	65	60	50
Surprise Threat Exposure	SocietyMisuse Potential	20	85	70	55
Recursive AI Capabilities	AIAI Uses	35	70	85	90
Industries	AIAI Uses	30	35	30	75
Governments	AIAI Uses	40	50	55	70
Coordination	AIAI Uses	45	55	40	65
Countries	AIAI Ownership	25	50	45	65
Companies	AIAI Ownership	35	45	50	70
Shareholders	AIAI Ownership	30	40	25	60

Ultimate Scenarios

9 of 9 results

Parameter	Parent Scenario	Changeability	Uncertainty	X-Risk	Trajectory
Rapid	AI Takeover	40	70	95	85
Gradual	AI Takeover	55	60	80	90
State Actor	Human-Caused Catastrophe	45	55	75	70
Rogue Actor	Human-Caused Catastrophe	35	65	70	45
Economic Power	Long-term Lock-in	50	45	30	85
Political Power	Long-term Lock-in	45	50	40	90
Epistemics	Long-term Lock-in	35	60	35	80
Values	Long-term Lock-in	30	65	50	95
Suffering Lock-in	Long-term Lock-in	25	75	60	90