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EA Crux Project

Concentration of Power

📋Page Status
Quality:91 (Comprehensive)⚠️
Importance:25 (Peripheral)
Last edited:2025-12-29 (9 days ago)
Words:479
Backlinks:17
Structure:
📊 4📈 0🔗 19📚 0•17%Score: 9/15
LLM Summary:Concentration of power is the risk of AI enabling unprecedented control by few organizations. This is a short reference page—see Power Distribution parameter for comprehensive analysis.
Risk

Concentration of Power

Importance25
CategoryStructural Risk
SeverityHigh
Likelihoodmedium-high
Timeframe2030
MaturityGrowing
TypeStructural/Systemic
Related
Risks

Overview

Section titled “Overview”

AI is enabling unprecedented concentration of power in the hands of a few organizations, fundamentally altering traditional power structures across economic, political, and military domains. Unlike previous technologies that affected specific sectors, AI’s general-purpose nature creates advantages that compound across all areas of human activity.

For comprehensive analysis, see AI Control Concentration, which covers:

  • Current power distribution metrics across actors
  • Concentration mechanisms (compute, data, talent, capital)
  • Factors that increase and decrease concentration
  • Intervention effectiveness and policy options
  • Trajectory scenarios through 2035

Risk Assessment

Section titled “Risk Assessment”
DimensionCurrent Status5-10 Year LikelihoodSeverity
Economic concentration5 firms control 80%+ AI cloudVery High (85%+)Extreme
Compute barriers$100M+ for frontier trainingVery High (90%+)High
Talent concentrationTop 50 researchers at 6 labsHigh (75%)High
Regulatory capture riskEarly lobbying influenceHigh (70%)High
Geopolitical concentrationUS-China duopoly emergingVery High (90%+)Extreme

Key Concentration Mechanisms

Section titled “Key Concentration Mechanisms”
MechanismCurrent StateBarrier Effect
Compute requirements$100M+, 25,000+ GPUs for frontier models↗Only ~20 organizations can train frontier models
Cloud infrastructureAWS, Azure, GCP control 68%↗Essential gatekeepers for AI development
Chip manufacturingNVIDIA 95%+ market share↗Critical chokepoint
Capital requirementsMicrosoft $13B+ into OpenAI↗Only largest tech firms can compete
2030 projection$1-10B per model↗Likely fewer than 10 organizations capable

Why Concentration Matters for AI Safety

Section titled “Why Concentration Matters for AI Safety”
ConcernMechanism
Democratic accountabilitySmall groups make decisions affecting billions without representation
Single points of failureConcentration creates systemic risk if key actors fail
Regulatory captureConcentrated interests shape rules in their favor
Values alignmentWhose values get embedded when few control development?
Geopolitical instabilityAI advantage could upset international balance

Responses That Address This Risk

Section titled “Responses That Address This Risk”
ResponseMechanismStatus
Compute GovernanceControl access to training resourcesEmerging
Antitrust enforcementBreak up concentrated powerLimited application
Open-source AIDistribute capabilities broadlyActive but contested
International coordinationPrevent winner-take-all dynamicsEarly stage

See AI Control Concentration for detailed analysis.

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Primary Reference

Section titled “Primary Reference”
Section titled “Related Risks”
Section titled “Related Parameters”

Sources

Section titled “Sources”

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