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Societal Trust: Research Report

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📊 14📈 0🔗 4📚 54%Score: 11/15
FindingKey DataImplication
Institutional trustDown 30-50% since 2000Authority weakened
Interpersonal trustDeclining in most democraciesSocial fabric fraying
PolarizationTrust across lines very lowCan’t cooperate
Rebuilding slowGenerations to rebuildLong-term problem
AI accelerationMay further erode trustConcerning trajectory

Societal trust—confidence in institutions, experts, and each other—is foundational to functional societies. Trust enables collective action: people follow laws they don’t individually verify, use currency they don’t personally back, and accept election outcomes they didn’t directly witness. When trust erodes, these coordination mechanisms weaken, and societies become less able to address collective challenges.

Trust has declined substantially in most democracies since 2000. Trust in government, media, science, and each other has dropped 30-50% in the United States and many European countries. This decline has multiple causes: institutional failures, political polarization, media fragmentation, and—increasingly—the information environment that social media and AI create.

AI poses both risks and opportunities for trust. AI-generated disinformation and deepfakes can further erode trust in information. AI-enabled manipulation can damage interpersonal trust. But AI could also help rebuild trust by improving institutional performance, enabling transparency, and facilitating communication. The net effect depends on how AI develops and is governed.


TypeDescriptionStatus
InstitutionalTrust in organizationsDeclining
InterpersonalTrust in othersDeclining
ExpertTrust in expertiseDeclining
PoliticalTrust in governmentVery low
SystemTrust in overall systemFragile
FunctionMechanismAffected By Trust Erosion
CoordinationFollow shared rulesLess compliance
DelegationAccept expert decisionsChallenge authority
InvestmentLong-term commitmentShort-term focus
CommunicationBelieve what others sayAssume manipulation
CooperationWork with othersDefect, free-ride

Institution/Type20002024Change
Federal government (US)44%22%-50%
Media55%32%-42%
Science (high confidence)45%35%-22%
Big business28%14%-50%
Each other (US)35%30%-14%
CountryInstitutional TrustInterpersonal TrustTrend
Nordic countriesHighVery highStable
United StatesLowModerateDeclining
UKModerateModerateDeclining
FranceLowModerateStable
ChinaVaries by measureComplex
MeasureDescriptionLevel
In-group trustTrust in own political sideHigh
Out-group trustTrust in opposing sideVery low
GapDifference between groupsLarge and growing
EntityTrust LevelTrend
AI companiesLow-ModerateDeclining
Government AI regulationLowVaries
AI safety expertsModerateGrowing slowly
AI-generated contentShould be lowToo high

FactorMechanismStatus
Institutional failuresFailures justify distrustOngoing
Media fragmentationNo shared informationAccelerating
PolarizationOut-group = enemyIntensifying
TransparencySee flaws more easilyDouble-edged
AI disinformationCan’t believe anythingGrowing
FactorMechanismStatus
Institutional reformBetter performanceLimited
Shared challengesCommon enemies unitePotential (AI risk?)
TransparencyEarn trust through opennessSome progress
TimeGenerations of reliabilityVery slow
Bridge-buildingCross-group engagementLimited success

EffectMechanismCurrent Scale
DeepfakesCan’t trust video/audioGrowing
Disinformation scaleMore false informationLarge
Personalized manipulationTargeted trust erosionWidespread
Authenticity crisisNothing verifiableEmerging
Job displacementEconomic insecurityGrowing
PotentialMechanismRealization
Better governanceAI-improved institutionsLimited
TransparencyAI enables verificationSome
CommunicationAI translation/bridgingPossible
Problem-solvingAI solves shared problemsPotential

ImplicationDescription
Coordination harderCan’t agree on AI policy
Lab trust deficitPublic doesn’t trust self-regulation
Government capacityAgencies lack credibility
Expert authoritySafety warnings discounted
ImplicationDescription
Warning effectivenessMay not be believed
Collective actionCan’t mobilize without trust
International cooperationNations don’t trust each other
Information sharingLabs don’t trust competitors

Related ParameterConnection
Epistemic HealthTrust enables epistemic function
GovernanceGovernance requires trust
Coordination CapacityCoordination requires trust
International CoordinationInternational trust very low