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Regulatory Capacity: Research Report

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FindingKey DataImplication
Expertise gapFew AI experts in governmentCan’t understand what to regulate
Resource gapGovernment budgets much less than industryCan’t match industry capacity
Speed gapRegulation takes years, AI advances monthsAlways behind
FragmentationMultiple agencies, no unified bodyCoordination problems
Building capacityAI Safety Institutes emergingSome progress

Regulatory capacity—government’s ability to effectively oversee and regulate AI—is a critical constraint on AI governance. Even well-designed regulations fail if regulators can’t understand AI systems, can’t monitor compliance, and can’t adapt rules to rapid technological change. Current regulatory capacity for AI is severely limited across most jurisdictions.

The gaps are substantial. Most regulatory agencies have few staff with AI expertise, making it difficult to evaluate technical claims or design appropriate requirements. Government AI budgets are tiny compared to industry R&D spending. The regulatory process—from proposed rule to implementation—takes years, while AI capabilities advance in months. And AI oversight is fragmented across multiple agencies with overlapping and incomplete mandates.

Efforts to build capacity are underway. AI Safety Institutes have been established in the US, UK, Japan, Singapore, and other countries to develop technical expertise. The EU AI Office is staffing up to implement the AI Act. But the scale of investment remains far below what effective oversight would require, and the fundamental speed mismatch between regulation and AI development persists.


ComponentDescriptionStatus
Technical expertiseStaff who understand AIVery limited
ResourcesBudget, compute, toolsFar below need
AuthorityLegal power to regulateFragmented
ProcessesProcedures that work for AIUnderdeveloped
EnforcementAbility to ensure complianceWeak
ModelDescriptionAI Status
Dedicated regulatorSingle AI authorityProposed, few implemented
DistributedExisting agencies adaptCurrent US approach
Self-regulationIndustry governs itselfCurrent dominant mode
Co-regulationGovernment + industrySome elements

JurisdictionAI Experts in GovernmentIndustry AI Researchers
US (all agencies)~500-1,000~50,000+
EU (AI Office)~140~10,000+
UK (AI Safety Institute)~100~5,000+
Most countriesVery fewVaries
MetricGovernmentIndustryRatio
Annual AI budget$1-5B (all governments)$50B+10-50x
Compute accessMinimalMassive100x+
Research outputLimitedDominant10x+
SalariesStandard governmentPremium2-3x
ProcessTypical DurationAI Change Rate
Major regulation3-7 yearsN/A
Agency rulemaking1-3 yearsN/A
Model generationN/A6-12 months
Capability advanceN/AMonths
JurisdictionAI Oversight BodiesCoordination
US10+ agenciesVery limited
EUAI Office + membersBuilding
UKMultiple + AI Safety InstituteDeveloping
ChinaCAC + othersState-coordinated

FactorMechanismStatus
Talent competitionGovernment can’t match salariesPersistent
Budget constraintsLimited funds for AIPersistent
Political willAI not priorityVariable
Institutional inertiaAgencies slow to adaptPersistent
ComplexityAI hard to understandInherent
FactorMechanismStatus
AI Safety InstitutesDedicated technical bodiesGrowing
Regulatory sandboxesLearn by doingSome adoption
Industry rotationBring in expertiseLegal constraints
International cooperationShare capacityEarly
AI assistanceUse AI to regulate AIExperimental

CountryInstituteStaffFocus
USAI Safety Institute50+Evaluation, standards
UKAI Safety Institute100+Research, evaluation
JapanAI Safety InstituteNewStandards
SingaporeAI VerifySmallGovernance tools
InitiativeDescriptionStatus
EU AI OfficeImplement AI ActStaffing up
NIST AI RMFRisk management frameworkPublished
Public computeGovernment AI infrastructureProposed
Fellowship programsBring AI experts to governmentLimited

ImplicationDescription
Enforcement weakCan’t verify compliance
Rules outdatedCan’t keep pace
Capture riskDepend on industry info
Credibility lowCan’t demonstrate competence
ImplicationDescription
Self-regulation dominantMust rely on labs
External audit limitedCan’t independently verify
Incident response weakLimited capability
Accountability gapsCan’t assign responsibility

Related ParameterConnection
GovernanceCapacity determines governance effectiveness
International CoordinationCapacity affects coordination ability
Safety Culture StrengthCapacity shapes regulatory relationship
Institutional QualityCapacity is part of institutional quality