AI’s economic impacts represent both unprecedented opportunity and significant risk. Studies estimate AI could contribute $13-15 trillion to global GDP by 2030, with productivity gains of 1-2% annually. However, these benefits come with substantial disruption risks. The IMF estimates 40% of global jobs are exposed to AI, rising to 60% in advanced economies. The key variable is transition speed: gradual change allows adaptation, while rapid displacement could trigger economic crises.
The labor market faces particular pressure. McKinsey estimates 30% of work hours could be automated by 2030, affecting 400 million workers globally. Unlike previous automation waves concentrated in manufacturing, AI affects white-collar and cognitive work—including high-skill professions previously considered automation-resistant. This creates novel policy challenges: how do societies support knowledge workers transitioning out of careers built over decades?
Financial stability concerns are emerging. AI-driven trading already dominates markets, and AI-generated content could affect market information quality. Concentration of AI capabilities among few companies raises antitrust concerns and could create new forms of market power. The macroeconomic effects of AI—on inflation, wages, capital/labor shares, and fiscal sustainability—remain highly uncertain.