Skip to content

AI Ownership - Countries: Research Report

📋Page Status
Quality:3 (Stub)⚠️
Words:1.1k
Structure:
📊 13📈 0🔗 4📚 5•4%Score: 11/15
FindingKey DataImplication
US dominance60%+ of frontier modelsSets global standards
China second15-25% of frontier capabilityStrategic competition
EU lagNo frontier labsRegulatory but not capability power
Talent concentrationUS attracts global AI talentReinforcing dynamics
Geopolitical tensionUS-China competitionCoordination difficult

The development of advanced AI is heavily concentrated in a small number of countries, with the United States dominant and China as the primary competitor. The US hosts all major Western frontier AI labs (OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, Meta AI) and attracts the majority of global AI talent. China, while behind on some measures, is investing heavily and has made significant progress, particularly in applications and increasingly in frontier research.

This geographic concentration has profound implications. The values and priorities of US and Chinese societies—and their governments—will be disproportionately embedded in AI systems that affect the entire world. Countries without frontier AI capability will be dependent on others for transformative technology. The US-China rivalry creates racing dynamics that may undermine safety, while making international coordination on AI governance extremely difficult.

Other regions—the EU, UK, Japan, and emerging powers—face strategic questions about AI development. The EU has chosen regulatory leadership over capability development. The UK aims to balance safety research with competitiveness. Smaller countries must navigate a world where AI power is concentrated elsewhere.


RegionRoleAI Strategy
United StatesFrontier leaderPrivate sector-led, light regulation
ChinaStrategic competitorState-directed, national priority
EURegulatory powerEthics/safety focus, limited capability
UKSafety focusAI Safety Institute, research
OthersVariedApplication, not frontier
DimensionDescriptionGeographic Distribution
Frontier modelsMost capable systemsUS (60%+), China (20%+), Others (<20%)
ComputeTraining resourcesUS (50%+), China (30%+)
TalentTop researchersUS (40%+), China (15%+), dispersed
InvestmentR&D spendingUS (50%+), China (30%+)
ApplicationsDeployment scaleUS, China, then global

Country/RegionMajor LabsFrontier Models
United StatesOpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, MetaGPT-4, Claude, Gemini, Llama
ChinaBaidu, Alibaba, Tencent, ByteDanceERNIE, Qwen, others
FranceMistralMistral family
UAETechnology Innovation InstituteFalcon
OthersVariousBelow frontier
CountryAnnual AI R&D (est.)% of Global
United States$50B+~50%
China$30B+~30%
EU (combined)$10B+~10%
UK$3B+~3%
Others$7B+~7%
MetricUS ShareChina ShareOther
Top AI researchers40%+15%+45% dispersed
PhDs produced20%+30%+50%+ (many go to US)
Researcher employment50%+20%+30%
Brain drain beneficiaryYesNeutralNet exporters
ResourceUS ControlChina ControlOther
Cloud AI compute70%+20%+<10%
Advanced chips (production)0% (but controls via allies)0%Taiwan 90%
Chip design60%+ (NVIDIA, AMD)Growing30%+
Training clusters60%+30%+<10%

FactorMechanismStatus
Talent attractionImmigration, salaries, ecosystemStrong
Venture capitalFunding for startupsStrong
Tech ecosystemSilicon Valley, universitiesEntrenched
Compute accessCloud providers, chip supplyStrong
Export controlsLimit competitor accessActive
FactorMechanismStatus
State investmentGovernment prioritizationStrong
Data accessLarge population, weak privacyStrong
Talent poolGrowing STEM educationStrong
Chip investmentDomestic alternativesGrowing
Application focusDeploy at scaleStrong
FactorAffected CountriesMechanism
Talent drainEU, India, othersBest leave for US
Scale disadvantageSmaller countriesCan’t match investment
Chip accessNon-alliesExport controls
Regulatory burdenEUAI Act compliance costs

DimensionUS PositionChina PositionImplication
Capability raceLeadingCatching upRacing dynamics
Export controlsImposingCircumventingTech decoupling
Standards settingWestern-ledAlternative standardsFragmented governance
Military AIAdvancedAdvancing rapidlyArms race
Safety cooperationLimited opennessVery limitedHard to coordinate
Country/RegionStrategyRationale
EURegulate, values-basedLeverage market access
UKSafety research, bridge roleInfluence without scale
JapanPartnership with USSecurity alliance
IndiaApplication, talentScale advantages
UAE/SaudiInvestment, infrastructureSovereign capability

Related FactorConnection
Concentration of PowerGeographic concentration is power concentration
Racing IntensityUS-China race drives racing
AI GovernanceInternational governance requires cooperation
State ActorStates with AI pose different risks