Electoral Impact Assessment Model
Electoral Impact Assessment Model
Overview
Section titled “Overview”AI dramatically lowers the cost of creating and distributing disinformation at scale. But does this translate to meaningful impact on election outcomes? This model provides a framework for estimating the marginal effect of AI-generated disinformation on electoral results and democratic processes.
Core Question: By how much can AI disinformation shift election results, and under what conditions?
Strategic Importance
Section titled “Strategic Importance”Understanding AI disinformation’s electoral impact matters because democratic legitimacy depends on elections reflecting genuine voter preferences. If AI disinformation can reliably shift 2-5% of votes in close elections (our central estimate), this represents a fundamental threat to democratic governance.
Magnitude Assessment
Section titled “Magnitude Assessment”| Dimension | Assessment | Quantitative Estimate |
|---|---|---|
| Direct electoral impact | Moderate - individual elections rarely flipped, but close races vulnerable | 0.2-5% chance of flipping any given election |
| Cumulative electoral impact | High - across 50+ major elections annually, 1-3 likely flipped | 1-3 elections changed per year globally |
| Democratic trust erosion | Very High - systemic effect may exceed direct vote impacts | Trust declining 2-5% annually, accelerating |
| Close election vulnerability | Critical - races within 3% margin highly susceptible | 20-30% of elections are close enough to flip |
| Expected vote shift from AI | Moderate - 1-3% of electorate potentially shifted | 1.5-4.5 million votes in US presidential election |
| Factor | Assessment | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Direct harm severity | High (threatens democracy) | Medium |
| Tractability of defense | Medium (multiple interventions possible) | Low |
| Neglectedness | Low-Medium (receiving attention, but not calibrated to threat) | Medium |
| Time sensitivity | High (affects 2024-2026 elections) | High |
Resource Implications
Section titled “Resource Implications”| Intervention | Investment Needed | Expected Impact | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|
| Platform detection and removal | $100-300 million annually | Reduces AI disinformation reach by 20-40%; declining effectiveness | High (near-term) |
| Provenance mandates for political ads | $20-50 million for implementation | Authenticates 60-80% of legitimate political content | High |
| Election security infrastructure | $200-500 million over 4 years | Rapid response capability; fact-checking coordination | High |
| Voter media literacy campaigns | $50-150 million per election cycle | Increases skepticism by 10-20%; limited reach to vulnerable populations | Medium |
| International coordination on attribution | $30-80 million annually | Enables consequences for state-sponsored interference | Medium |
| Emergency content restrictions (if crisis) | Political cost, not financial | Could prevent immediate crisis but raises free speech concerns | Conditional |
Key Cruxes
Section titled “Key Cruxes”| Crux | If True | If False | Current Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI disinformation can reliably shift greater than 2% of votes | Fundamental threat to close elections; justifies major intervention | Threat overstated; focus resources elsewhere | 60-70% probability - evidence from micro-targeting suggests plausible |
| Detection can keep pace with generation quality | Platform moderation remains effective defense | Detection fails; alternative defenses needed | 20-30% probability - declining trend suggests failure likely |
| Voters develop resistance to AI manipulation | Natural adaptation reduces threat over time | Vulnerability persists or increases | 40-50% probability - some evidence of growing skepticism |
| Cheap fakes remain more effective than sophisticated AI | AI adds marginal threat; traditional methods dominate | AI becomes primary disinformation vector | 55-65% probability near-term; declining as AI quality improves |
| Systemic trust erosion matters more than individual elections | Prioritize long-term democratic health over election-specific defense | Focus on preventing specific election manipulation | 70-80% probability - trust trends more concerning than documented flips |
Key insight: The marginal impact of AI disinformation is probably smaller than media coverage suggests for individual elections, but systemic effects on democratic trust may matter more than vote margin shifts.
The Marginal Impact Problem
Section titled “The Marginal Impact Problem”Elections are influenced by countless factors:
- Economic conditions
- Candidate quality
- Campaign spending
- Media coverage
- Debates and events
- Ground operations
- Traditional advertising
- Disinformation (pre-AI)
- AI-Generated disinformation (new)
Challenge: Isolating the marginal contribution of AI-enhanced disinformation from everything else.
Impact Pathway Model
Section titled “Impact Pathway Model”We can decompose the causal pathway from AI capability to electoral impact:
Each step has a probability/magnitude. The overall impact is the product of all steps.
Step 1: AI → Disinformation Volume/Quality
Section titled “Step 1: AI → Disinformation Volume/Quality”Pre-AI Disinformation Constraints:
- Human effort required for each piece of content
- Limited personalization
- Detectable patterns (template-based)
- Cost: $1-10 per piece for quality content
AI Enhancement:
- Automated generation at massive scale
- Personalized to individual targets
- High quality, indistinguishable from organic content
- Cost: $0.001-0.01 per piece
Multiplier Effect:
- Volume increase: 100-1000x
- Quality increase: 1.5-3x (more convincing)
- Personalization increase: 10-100x (targeted messaging)
Overall AI Impact on Content Creation: ~150-3000x increase in effective disinformation output
Confidence: High. Well-documented in 2024 elections.
Step 2: Volume/Quality → Exposure
Section titled “Step 2: Volume/Quality → Exposure”Not all content reaches audiences. Social media algorithms, platform moderation, and user behavior filter content.
Platform Moderation:
- Platforms remove ~20-40% of detected disinformation
- AI-generated content currently detected at ~30-60% rate (falling)
- Net effect: 50-80% of AI disinformation reaches audiences (vs ~60-90% of human disinformation)
Algorithmic Amplification:
- Engaging content (often outrage-inducing disinformation) promoted
- AI-generated content can optimize for engagement
- Multiplier: 1.2-2x amplification vs. baseline
Audience Reach:
- Traditional disinformation: reaches 5-15% of target audience
- AI-personalized disinformation: reaches 10-30% of target audience (better targeting)
Overall Exposure Multiplier (AI vs traditional): 1.5-4x
Confidence: Medium. Platform algorithms are opaque; estimates based on disclosed data.
Step 3: Exposure → Belief Change
Section titled “Step 3: Exposure → Belief Change”How many people who see disinformation actually believe it?
Baseline Belief Rates (Pre-AI):
- Aligned with existing beliefs: 30-50% believe
- Counter to existing beliefs: 5-15% believe
- No prior opinion: 20-40% believe
AI Enhancement Factors:
Personalization: AI can tailor messaging to individual psychology
- Estimated increase in persuasiveness: 1.3-2x
Multimodal Content: Deepfakes, voice clones more convincing than text
- Estimated increase for video/audio: 1.5-2.5x vs text
Repetition at Scale: Multiple exposures via different “sources” (all AI)
- Estimated increase per additional exposure: 1.2x (up to 3-4 exposures)
Overall Belief Change Multiplier (AI vs traditional): 2-6x depending on content type and targeting
Confidence: Low-Medium. Limited experimental data. Based on persuasion research and preliminary studies.
Step 4: Belief Change → Vote Choice Change
Section titled “Step 4: Belief Change → Vote Choice Change”Not all belief changes translate to vote switching.
Baseline Vote Impact (pre-AI disinformation):
- Partisans rarely switch: 1-3% affected
- Swing voters more susceptible: 10-20% affected
- Low-information voters most susceptible: 15-30% affected
Election Type Matters:
- Presidential elections: Voters have strong priors, hard to shift
- Local elections: Lower information, easier to influence
- Ballot initiatives: Voters often uncertain, highly influenceable
AI Disinformation Vote Impact: Assuming AI increases belief change by 2-6x (Step 3):
- Partisans: 2-8% affected (low end—beliefs don’t translate to switching)
- Swing voters: 15-35% affected
- Low-info voters: 25-50% affected
Weighted Average (typical electorate):
- ~15% swing voters
- ~30% low-info voters
- ~55% strong partisans
Overall Vote Impact: 5-15% of exposed population might shift vote due to AI disinformation
Confidence: Low. Vote switching is multi-causal; attribution difficult.
Step 5: Vote Change → Outcome Change
Section titled “Step 5: Vote Change → Outcome Change”Finally, how many votes need to shift to change election results?
Close Elections:
- 2020 U.S. Presidential: Decided by ~44,000 votes across 3 states (~0.03% of total votes)
- Many congressional races decided by 1-3%
- Close elections highly vulnerable to small shifts
Landslide Elections:
- 10+ point margins require massive shifts to overturn
- AI disinformation unlikely to swing
Quantitative Model:
Assume:
- Close election (within 3%)
- AI disinformation reaches 30% of electorate
- Of those, 10% shift votes
- Overall vote shift: 3%
Result: Enough to flip a close election.
Case Study Analysis
Section titled “Case Study Analysis”2024 Elections: The “AI Election” That Wasn’t?
Section titled “2024 Elections: The “AI Election” That Wasn’t?”Despite being called the “AI election year,” post-election analysis found limited evidence of decisive AI disinformation impact.
Why the limited impact?
Possible Explanations:
-
Detection Worked: Platform moderation caught enough AI content to limit spread
- Evidence: Multiple platforms reported removing AI-generated campaigns
- Counter-evidence: Much went undetected
-
Audience Skepticism: Voters increasingly aware of AI manipulation, more skeptical
- Evidence: Increased media literacy campaigns
- Counter-evidence: Most voters unaware of specific AI threats
-
Cheap Fakes More Effective: Simple edited videos outperformed sophisticated AI (7:1 ratio per News Literacy Project)
- Evidence: Well-documented
- Implication: Quality may matter less than simplicity
-
Existing Polarization Dominates: Voters already so polarized that marginal disinformation doesn’t matter
- Evidence: Historically high partisan loyalty
- Implication: AI disinformation adds noise, not signal
-
Measurement Problem: Impact exists but is undetectable amid other factors
- Evidence: Close races in swing states consistent with small AI impact
- Problem: Can’t prove counterfactual
Most Likely: Combination of #3, #4, and #5. AI disinformation had some impact but was not decisive in 2024.
Slovakia 2023: Deepfake Audio Incident
Section titled “Slovakia 2023: Deepfake Audio Incident”Event: Audio deepfake of liberal party leader discussing vote rigging surfaced days before election Result: Liberal party suffered upset loss Attribution: Unclear if deepfake was decisive
Analysis:
- Timing (just before election) maximized impact, minimized correction time
- Topic (vote rigging) highly salient and credible to some voters
- Close race amplified marginal effects
Estimated Impact: Possibly 1-3% vote shift, potentially decisive in close race
Lessons:
- Timing matters enormously
- Topic credibility affects impact
- Close races vulnerable to small effects
Taiwan 2024: Documented AI Influence Campaign
Section titled “Taiwan 2024: Documented AI Influence Campaign”Event: Microsoft documented China-based AI-generated deepfakes targeting Taiwan election Result: Unclear impact on outcome Characteristics: First confirmed state-actor use of AI in foreign election
Analysis:
- Detected and publicized before election (reduced impact)
- Taiwan electorate somewhat prepared for Chinese interference
- Content quality varied (some obvious, some convincing)
Estimated Impact: <1% vote shift, not decisive
Lessons:
- Attribution and publicity can reduce impact
- Prepared electorates more resilient
Quantitative Impact Estimates
Section titled “Quantitative Impact Estimates”Model 1: Multiplicative Probability
Section titled “Model 1: Multiplicative Probability”P(AI flips election) = P(close race) × P(AI campaign) × P(reaches voters) × P(shifts votes) × P(shift is decisive)
Where:P(close race) = 0.15-0.30 (varies by election type)P(AI campaign) = 0.50-0.90 (becoming common)P(reaches voters) = 0.20-0.50 (platform moderation, virality)P(shifts votes) = 0.05-0.15 (small persuasion effect)P(shift is decisive) = 0.10-0.30 (in close race context)Result: P(AI flips election) = 0.0015 to 0.054 (0.15% to 5.4%)
Interpretation: In any given election, AI disinformation has a ~0.2-5% chance of being decisive.
Over many elections (50+ major races in a year), AI disinformation likely flips 1-3 elections annually (current state).
Confidence: Very low. Enormous uncertainty in each parameter.
Model 2: Vote Margin Approach
Section titled “Model 2: Vote Margin Approach”Baseline Assumptions:
- 100 million voters
- 50-50 race
- 30% exposed to AI disinformation
- 5% of exposed shift votes
- 1.5 million vote shift (1.5% of total)
In close elections (decided by <1%): AI disinformation likely decisive
In moderate elections (3-5% margin): AI disinformation possibly influential but not clearly decisive
In landslide elections (>7% margin): AI disinformation unlikely decisive
Implication: ~20-30% of elections are close enough that AI disinformation could plausibly be decisive.
Factors Moderating Impact
Section titled “Factors Moderating Impact”Increasing AI Impact
Section titled “Increasing AI Impact”- Targeting Sophistication: Better micro-targeting increases efficiency
- Multimodal Content: Video/audio more persuasive than text
- Coordination: Multiple AI campaigns from different sources reinforce messaging
- Erosion of Trust: As authentic media becomes suspect, all information becomes equally (un)reliable
- Authoritarian Backing: State-sponsored campaigns have more resources and persistence
Decreasing AI Impact
Section titled “Decreasing AI Impact”- Platform Countermeasures: Detection, labeling, removal
- Media Literacy: Educated populations more skeptical
- Provenance Systems: C2PA and similar make authentic content verifiable
- Partisan Polarization: Voters so entrenched that persuasion is difficult
- Saturation: So much disinformation that all becomes noise
Trajectory Projections
Section titled “Trajectory Projections”2024-2026: Early Impact Phase
Section titled “2024-2026: Early Impact Phase”Characteristics:
- AI disinformation common but detectable
- Platforms implementing countermeasures
- Electorate beginning to adapt
- Estimated impact: 1-3% of close elections flipped
2026-2028: Escalation Phase
Section titled “2026-2028: Escalation Phase”Characteristics:
- AI-generated content becomes harder to detect
- Personalization improves (better targeting)
- More actors deploy AI campaigns
- Public awareness increases but so does volume
- Estimated impact: 3-8% of close elections flipped
2028-2030: Saturation or Adaptation
Section titled “2028-2030: Saturation or Adaptation”Two Possible Paths:
Path A: Saturation (40% probability)
- So much disinformation that voters tune out
- All information treated as equally suspect
- Impact paradoxically decreases as volume increases
- Estimated impact: 2-5% of elections (impact declines)
Path B: Sophistication Wins (60% probability)
- Personalized, multimodal AI content highly effective
- Detection fails to keep pace
- Provenance systems not widely adopted
- Estimated impact: 10-20% of close elections flipped
Systemic Democratic Effects
Section titled “Systemic Democratic Effects”Beyond individual elections, AI disinformation affects democratic health:
Trust Erosion:
- Even if specific election impacts are small, aggregate trust in media declines
- “Liar’s dividend” makes all evidence deniable
- Democratic deliberation requires shared reality—this breaks down
Measured Impact:
- Trust in media: Declining 3-5% annually (accelerating)
- Belief in election integrity: Declining 2-4% annually
- Political polarization: Increasing (AI contribution unclear but likely 10-30%)
These systemic effects may matter more than vote margins in individual elections.
Policy Implications
Section titled “Policy Implications”If Impact is Currently Low (<2% of elections)
Section titled “If Impact is Currently Low (<2% of elections)”Interpretation: Current countermeasures working; worry may be overblown
Recommended Actions:
- Maintain current platform policies
- Monitor for increasing impact
- Continue media literacy efforts
- Avoid over-regulation that might harm free speech
If Impact is Moderate (2-8% of elections)
Section titled “If Impact is Moderate (2-8% of elections)”Interpretation: Significant threat but manageable with effort
Recommended Actions:
- Strengthen platform detection and removal
- Mandate provenance systems (C2PA)
- Increase funding for election security
- International cooperation on attribution and consequences
If Impact is High (>10% of elections)
Section titled “If Impact is High (>10% of elections)”Interpretation: Crisis-level threat to democratic integrity
Recommended Actions:
- Emergency measures: possible temporary restrictions on AI-generated political content
- Mandatory authentication for all political advertising
- Dramatic increase in election security budgets
- Consider election reforms (longer voting periods to allow fact-checking)
Model Limitations
Section titled “Model Limitations”-
Counterfactual Problem: Can’t know what would have happened without AI disinformation
-
Multi-Causality: Elections influenced by dozens of factors; isolating AI effect nearly impossible
-
Detection Bias: Only measuring detected campaigns; most sophisticated may go unnoticed
-
Heterogeneity: Impact varies wildly by election type, electorate, and context
-
Rapid Change: Model parameters shifting quickly as technology and countermeasures evolve
Key Debates
Section titled “Key Debates”Did AI “Break” 2024 Elections? Research suggests no, but measurement problems make this uncertain. Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.
What Matters More: Individual Elections or Systemic Trust? Even if AI doesn’t flip many elections, erosion of epistemic commons might be the bigger harm.
Can Democracy Survive in an Era of Undetectable Disinformation? Pessimists say no; optimists argue humans have adapted to information threats before.
Related Models
Section titled “Related Models”- Disinformation Detection Arms Race - Can we detect it at all?
- Deepfakes Authentication Crisis - Visual media authenticity
Sources
Section titled “Sources”- Stanford HAI. “The Disinformation Machine: How Susceptible Are We to AI Propaganda?” (2024)
- News Literacy Project. “Cheap Fakes vs. AI in 2024 Elections” analysis
- Microsoft Threat Intelligence. “Taiwan Election Interference Report” (2024)
- Academic literature on campaign persuasion effects
- Post-election analyses from multiple jurisdictions