The Gap Between Open and Closed AI Models Might Be Shrinking
Summary
Epoch AI research reveals that open AI models are approximately one year behind closed models in capabilities, with the gap potentially shrinking as open models advance.
Review
The report by Epoch AI provides a nuanced analysis of the evolving landscape of AI model accessibility, highlighting the narrowing performance gap between open and closed AI models. By analyzing hundreds of models released since 2018 and measuring their performance on technical benchmarks, researchers found that open models like Meta's Llama 3.1 are progressively matching the capabilities of closed models like GPT-4, though with a lag of about 16 months. The study raises critical implications for AI governance and safety, demonstrating that the traditional dichotomy between open and closed models is becoming increasingly complex. While open models offer benefits like democratized access, innovation, and transparency, they also present significant challenges in terms of potential misuse and governance. The research suggests that policymakers and AI labs now have a crucial window to assess and potentially regulate frontier AI capabilities before they become widely accessible, emphasizing the need for careful, nuanced approaches to AI development and deployment.
Key Points
- Open AI models are approximately one year behind closed models in performance
- The distinction between open and closed models is becoming increasingly blurred
- Open models offer benefits of transparency and innovation, but also pose governance challenges