Metaculus
Summary
Metaculus is an online forecasting platform that allows users to predict future events and trends across areas like AI, biosecurity, and climate change. It provides probabilistic forecasts on a wide range of complex global questions.
Review
Metaculus represents an innovative approach to collective intelligence and predictive modeling, leveraging crowdsourced forecasting to generate insights on complex global challenges. The platform enables users to make probabilistic predictions on diverse topics, ranging from technological developments and geopolitical risks to scientific breakthroughs and energy transitions. By aggregating predictions from a diverse group of forecasters, Metaculus creates a dynamic, continuously updated knowledge base that can potentially provide more nuanced and adaptive perspectives than traditional expert analysis. Its focus areas—including AI progress, biosecurity, nuclear security, and climate change—are particularly relevant to understanding emerging global risks and technological trajectories. The platform's AI forecasting questions, such as predicting the timeline for weakly general AI systems, offer valuable insights into potential technological milestones and their associated uncertainties.
Key Points
- Crowdsourced forecasting platform covering critical global domains
- Provides probabilistic predictions on complex future scenarios
- Focuses on key areas like AI progress, biosecurity, and global risks