Good Judgment Open
Summary
Good Judgment Open is an online forecasting platform where users can predict future events and compete to become 'Superforecasters'. The platform is operated by Good Judgment, a forecasting services firm co-founded by Philip Tetlock.
Review
Good Judgment Open represents an innovative approach to predictive analytics by leveraging collective intelligence and crowd-sourced forecasting. The platform allows participants to make probabilistic predictions about complex global events across political, economic, and technological domains, with challenges sponsored by prestigious organizations like UBS Asset Management and Harvard Kennedy School. The platform's methodology is rooted in the work of Philip Tetlock, a renowned expert in forecasting who has demonstrated that carefully selected and trained individuals can consistently outperform traditional expert predictions. By creating a competitive environment where users can track their accuracy and develop their forecasting skills, Good Judgment Open contributes to understanding collective intelligence and improving predictive capabilities. While the platform offers an engaging approach to forecasting, its limitations include potential biases in participant selection and the challenge of accurately predicting complex, multi-dimensional global events.
Key Points
- Crowd-sourced forecasting platform for global events
- Developed by forecasting expert Philip Tetlock
- Enables users to become 'Superforecasters' through probabilistic prediction