RAND - Incentives for U.S.-China Conflict, Competition, and Cooperation
Summary
The report examines potential U.S.-China dynamics around artificial general intelligence (AGI), highlighting both competitive tensions and cooperative opportunities across five key national security problems.
Review
This RAND Corporation analysis offers a nuanced exploration of how the United States and China might navigate the emerging landscape of artificial general intelligence (AGI). The authors argue that while strategic rivalry creates strong incentives for competition, there are also critical areas where cooperation could be mutually beneficial and even necessary to mitigate existential risks.
The study systematically examines five 'hard national security problems' related to AGI: wonder weapons, systemic power shifts, WMD proliferation, artificial agency, and potential instability. By mapping out potential scenarios of conflict, competition, and cooperation, the research provides a sophisticated framework for understanding the geopolitical challenges of transformative AI. The authors emphasize that deliberate diplomatic efforts will be essential to manage potential risks, suggesting Track 1.5 dialogues, expert working groups, and incremental confidence-building measures as potential pathways to productive engagement.
Key Points
- AGI could dramatically reshape global power dynamics, creating both competitive and cooperative incentives
- Mutual risks like WMD proliferation and uncontrolled AI systems create potential areas for U.S.-China cooperation
- Diplomatic mechanisms and communication channels are crucial to preventing accidental escalation