AI Impacts
Summary
A comprehensive survey of 2,778 AI researchers explores predictions about AI milestone achievements and potential societal impacts. Researchers expressed both optimism and substantial concern about advanced AI's future trajectory.
Review
This groundbreaking survey provides unprecedented insights into AI researchers' perspectives on technological progress and potential risks. The study captured predictions across 39 AI task milestones, with most expected to be feasible within the next decade, and revealed a striking level of uncertainty about AI's long-term implications. Researchers consistently estimated a 10-50% chance of human-level AI capabilities emerging between 2027-2047, with a notable shift towards earlier expectations compared to previous years.
The research's key strength lies in its comprehensive approach, surveying experts from top AI conferences and probing complex questions about technological progress, societal impacts, and existential risks. Notably, between 38-51% of respondents assigned at least a 10% probability to extinction-level risks from advanced AI. The survey highlighted broad agreement that AI safety research should be prioritized more, while simultaneously revealing deep disagreement about the precise nature and timeline of potential AI developments.
Key Points
- Most AI tasks expected to be feasible within 10 years
- 50% chance of human-level AI by 2047, 13 years earlier than previous estimate
- 38-51% of researchers give ≥10% chance of extinction-level AI risks
- 70% believe AI safety research should be prioritized more