Carlsmith (2024): AI Forecasting for Existential Risk
Abstract
In diffusion-controlled drug delivery, it is possible for drug molecules to bind to the carrier material and never be released. A common way to incorporate this phenomenon into the governing mechanistic model is to include an irreversible first-order reaction term, where drug molecules become permanently immobilised once bound. For diffusion-only models, all the drug initially loaded into the device is released, while for reaction-diffusion models only a fraction of the drug is ultimately released. In this short paper, we show how to calculate this fraction for several common diffusion-controlled delivery systems. Easy-to-evaluate analytical expressions for the fraction of drug released are developed for monolithic and core-shell systems of slab, cylinder or sphere geometry. The developed formulas provide analytical insight into the effect that system parameters (e.g. diffusivity, binding rate, core radius) have on the total fraction of drug released, which may be helpful for practitioners designing drug delivery systems.