Forecasting Research Institute
Summary
A research organization focused on advancing forecasting science through innovative methodologies and experimental approaches. They work with policymakers and nonprofits to develop practical prediction tools.
Review
The Forecasting Research Institute (FRI) represents an important evolution in predictive methodology, building on the foundational work of Philip Tetlock in establishing rigorous prediction standards. Their approach moves beyond traditional forecasting by emphasizing practical applications and developing novel techniques for addressing complex, long-term challenges. FRI's research strategy concentrates on four key areas: generating high-quality forecasting questions about complex topics, creating methods for resolving seemingly unresolvable questions, testing forecasting techniques across different contexts, and developing tools to support organizational decision-making. This comprehensive approach demonstrates a sophisticated understanding of predictive science's potential to impact critical global issues, with particular relevance to domains like existential risk, biosecurity, and emerging technologies.
Key Points
- Advances forecasting methods for high-stakes global decision-making
- Develops innovative techniques for predicting complex, long-term challenges
- Focuses on practical application of forecasting across multiple domains