Governance Capacity
Overview
Section titled “Overview”Governance Capacity measures our collective ability to steer AI development through policy, regulation, and coordination. This is the cross-cutting aggregate—it affects all three outcome dimensions because governance shapes both what we build and how we deploy it.
Outcomes affected: All three
- Existential Catastrophe ↓↓ — Can we slow down or stop if needed?
- Transition ↓↓ — Are disruptions managed?
- Steady State ↓↓ — Who controls the future?
Component Parameters
Section titled “Component Parameters”Loading diagram...
| Parameter | Role | Current State |
|---|---|---|
| Regulatory Capacity | Can governments understand and regulate AI? | Improving (EU AI Act) but lagging |
| Institutional Quality | Do democratic institutions function effectively? | Variable, under stress |
| International Coordination | Can nations cooperate on AI governance? | Fragile (Seoul commitments) |
| Coordination Capacity | Can stakeholders work together? | Growing but limited |
| Racing Intensity | How much competitive pressure undermines governance? | High and increasing |
Internal Dynamics
Section titled “Internal Dynamics”These components interact:
- Coordination enables international agreements: Domestic coordination capacity → international cooperation → binding agreements
- Racing undermines everything: Intense competition pressures regulators, fragments international cooperation, weakens institutions
- Institutional quality amplifies capacity: Strong institutions make regulation more effective and coordination more durable
- There are feedback loops: Good governance reduces racing → enables more governance
How This Affects Outcomes
Section titled “How This Affects Outcomes”| Outcome | Effect | Mechanism |
|---|---|---|
| Existential Catastrophe | ↓↓ | Governance can slow racing, enforce safety standards, coordinate emergency response |
| Transition | ↓↓ | Governance manages economic disruption, maintains political stability, paces change |
| Steady State | ↓↓ | Governance shapes who controls AI, how benefits distribute, what values prevail |
Why Cross-Cutting?
Section titled “Why Cross-Cutting?”Governance is unique among aggregates because it operates at a meta-level:
- It shapes the rules under which technical development occurs
- It determines how society responds to AI-driven changes
- It influences long-term power structures
Other aggregates describe what happens; governance determines who decides.
Related Pages
Section titled “Related Pages”- All three outcomes: Existential Catastrophe, Steady State, Transition
- Misalignment Potential — What governance regulates