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Societal Adaptability

Societal Adaptability measures society’s capacity to absorb and adapt to AI-driven changes. These factors determine whether the transition is smooth (people and institutions can keep up) or rough (widespread disruption, suffering, and instability).

Primary outcome affected: Transition Smoothness ↓↓↓

High adaptability means society can navigate rapid change without catastrophic disruption. Low adaptability means even beneficial AI developments cause widespread suffering during the transition.


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ParameterRoleCurrent State
Societal ResilienceCan society absorb shocks and recover?Mixed (multi-cloud improving)
Economic StabilityAre economic disruptions manageable?Uncertain (40-60% job exposure)
Human ExpertiseDo humans retain relevant skills?Transforming, not clearly declining
Human AgencyCan people shape their own lives?Mixed picture

These components reinforce each other:

  • Resilience enables economic stability: Shock-absorbing systems prevent economic cascades
  • Economic stability supports agency: People with economic security can make genuine choices
  • Expertise enables agency: Skills give people options and bargaining power
  • Agency strengthens resilience: Empowered people invest in their communities and institutions

When these decline together, we get a fragility spiral—each shock weakens capacity to handle the next.


OutcomeEffectMechanism
Transition↓↓↓ PrimaryAdaptable societies navigate change with less suffering
Steady State↓ SecondaryHow we adapt shapes what steady state we reach
Existential Catastrophe↓ SecondaryFragile societies may respond to disruption with dangerous policies

Societal adaptability is the most directly policy-addressable aggregate:

InterventionTarget ComponentMechanism
Social safety netsEconomic StabilityBuffer displacement, maintain demand
Retraining programsHuman ExpertisePreserve human relevance
Community investmentSocietal ResilienceStrengthen local institutions
Worker protectionsHuman AgencyMaintain bargaining power

Unlike technical safety (which requires research breakthroughs), adaptability can be improved through conventional policy tools.