Cyber Threat Exposure
Cyber Threat Exposure quantifies how AI capabilities amplify offensive cyber operations and shift the offense-defense balance toward attackers. Unlike theoretical risks, AI-assisted cyberattacks are already occurring at scale—2025 saw AI-powered attacks surge 72% year-over-year, with 87% of organizations reporting AI-driven incidents.
The September 2025 Anthropic disclosure marked a watershed: the first documented AI-orchestrated cyberattack where AI executed 80-90% of tactical operations autonomously, targeting approximately 30 global entities. AI-generated phishing now achieves 54% click-through rates versus 12% for non-AI phishing—a 4.5x effectiveness improvement.
| Metric | Score | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Changeability | 35 | Difficult—cyber threats are pervasive with structural defense disadvantages |
| X-risk Impact | 55 | Moderate-high—primarily through infrastructure attacks enabling other risks |
| Trajectory Impact | 45 | Moderate—economic disruption and erosion of digital trust |
| Uncertainty | 50 | Well-documented threats but offense-defense balance remains contested |
Related Content
Section titled “Related Content”Risks:
Models:
Key Debates:
- Could AI-enabled cyberattacks cause physical catastrophe through infrastructure attacks?
- Will AI improve cyber defense more than offense, or create an offense-dominant world?
- Does AI-enabled anonymity make cyber conflict more likely by enabling deniable attacks?
What links here
- Human-Caused Catastrophescenariokey-factor
- Misuse Potentialrisk-factorcomposed-of
- Cyber Offense-Defense Balance Modelmodelmodels
- Autonomous Cyber Attack Timelinemodelaffects