Misuse Potential
Misuse Potential
Overview
Section titled “Overview”Misuse Potential measures the likelihood and severity of AI being weaponized or exploited by malicious actors. Unlike Misalignment Potential (which measures unintended AI behavior), Misuse Potential measures intentional harmful use by humans.
Primary outcome affected: Existential Catastrophe ↑↑↑
High misuse potential means more vectors for catastrophe even if AI systems are well-aligned. These threats can overwhelm defenses, trigger cascading failures, or exploit concentrated power.
Component Parameters
Section titled “Component Parameters”Internal Dynamics
Section titled “Internal Dynamics”These threats compound each other:
- Concentration amplifies impact: When control is concentrated, single failures affect everyone
- Bio and cyber interact: Same AI capabilities that enable one often enable the other
- Threat success breeds threat: Successful attacks demonstrate viability and attract more actors
This creates threat escalation dynamics—each incident makes the next more likely.
How This Affects Scenarios
Section titled “How This Affects Scenarios”Relationship to Misalignment Potential
Section titled “Relationship to Misalignment Potential”Misuse Potential and Misalignment Potential are complementary risk factors:
| Factor | Misalignment Potential | Misuse Potential |
|---|---|---|
| Source | AI behavior | Human actors |
| Direction | AI pursues unintended goals | Humans weaponize AI |
| Focus | Technical alignment | Access controls & defense |
| Improvability | Research & investment | Harder to reduce |
Both matter: Either can cause existential catastrophe independently. High misalignment potential means AI might cause harm on its own; high misuse potential means humans will use AI to cause harm.
Why Concentration Matters
Section titled “Why Concentration Matters”AI Control Concentration is unique because its effect depends on who controls:
- If control concentrates in safety-conscious actors: May reduce risk
- If control concentrates in reckless or malicious actors: Dramatically increases risk
- In either case: Reduces resilience to bad actors gaining control
This makes concentration a key uncertainty in existential catastrophe assessment.
Related Pages
Section titled “Related Pages”- Existential Catastrophe — The outcome this primarily affects
- Misalignment Potential — The complementary factor for AI-caused catastrophe
- Civilizational Competence — Governance can moderate misuse through regulation
What links here
- Existential Catastrophescenariodriver
- Human-Caused Catastrophescenariodriven-by
- AI Capabilitiesrisk-factoramplifies