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Governance (Civ. Competence)

Governance encompasses the quality of political institutions, regulatory capacity, and the ability to create effective AI policy. This parameter measures how well society’s formal decision-making structures can understand, evaluate, and respond to AI developments through legislation, regulation, and institutional coordination.

The fundamental challenge is a race against time: AI capabilities advance on timescales of months to years, while institutional adaptation typically operates on years to decades. Historical analysis shows regulatory lag spanning 15-70 years for transformative technologies. The Institutional Adaptation Speed Model estimates institutions currently change at only 10-30% of the needed rate while AI creates 50-200% annual governance gaps.

MetricScoreNotes
Changeability35/100Institutional reforms take years
X-risk Impact55/100Significant impact on existential risk pathways
Trajectory Impact70/100High influence on long-term outcomes
Uncertainty45/100Moderate uncertainty about governance effectiveness

Responses:

Models:

Key Debates:

  • Can democratic institutions move fast enough to govern rapidly advancing AI?
  • Should AI governance be led by technical experts or democratic processes?

Ratings

MetricScoreInterpretation
Changeability35/100Somewhat influenceable
X-risk Impact55/100Meaningful extinction risk
Trajectory Impact70/100Major effect on long-term welfare
Uncertainty45/100Moderate uncertainty in estimates