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Epistemics (Civ. Competence)

Epistemics refers to society’s collective ability to form accurate beliefs, resist misinformation, and maintain shared understanding of reality. This parameter measures the health of knowledge-producing institutions, verification mechanisms, and the capacity for rational public discourse essential to democratic governance and coordinated response to AI risks.

AI poses unprecedented challenges to epistemic foundations. Where previous information warfare required human labor and left detectable traces, AI enables automated generation of convincing text, images, audio, and video at minimal cost. Human deepfake detection accuracy is only 55.5%—barely above chance—while AI-generated political content is rated 82% more convincing than human-written equivalents. Voice cloning now requires just 3 seconds of audio. This technological shift potentially severs the link between seeing and believing that has anchored human epistemology for millennia.

MetricScoreNotes
Changeability25/100Deeply embedded social dynamics
X-risk Impact40/100Moderate direct existential impact
Trajectory Impact65/100High influence on long-term outcomes
Uncertainty55/100Substantial uncertainty about epistemic resilience

Risks:

Responses:

Key Debates:

  • Will AI-generated content fundamentally undermine shared epistemics?
  • Can we maintain scientific consensus on AI risks amid uncertainty and competing interests?

Ratings

MetricScoreInterpretation
Changeability25/100Hard to prevent or redirect
X-risk Impact40/100Meaningful extinction risk
Trajectory Impact65/100Significant effect on long-term welfare
Uncertainty55/100Moderate uncertainty in estimates