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Adaptability (Civ. Competence)

Adaptability measures how quickly institutions, economies, and social structures can adjust to rapid technological change without breaking down. This parameter captures society’s capacity to absorb shocks, reconfigure systems, and maintain functionality during periods of accelerating AI-driven disruption.

The AI transition creates adaptation demands across every major social system simultaneously. Economic disruption from AI-driven automation affects 40-60% of jobs in advanced economies. The World Economic Forum estimates 83 million jobs lost and 69 million created by 2027, yielding a net loss of 14 million positions. Unlike previous technological transitions that unfolded over decades, AI-driven change may occur on timescales of years. Flash dynamics—where AI systems interact faster than human oversight—compound these challenges.

MetricScoreNotes
Changeability30/100Structural adaptation takes time
X-risk Impact50/100Moderate existential impact
Trajectory Impact60/100Significant influence on long-term outcomes
Uncertainty50/100Moderate uncertainty about adaptive capacity

Risks:

Responses:

Models:

Key Debates:

  • Can large institutions adapt fast enough to keep pace with AI development?
  • How much economic and social disruption can societies absorb without destabilizing?

Ratings

MetricScoreInterpretation
Changeability30/100Hard to prevent or redirect
X-risk Impact50/100Meaningful extinction risk
Trajectory Impact60/100Significant effect on long-term welfare
Uncertainty50/100Moderate uncertainty in estimates