Root Factors

Root Factors are the top-level causal drivers that shape AI transition outcomes. They bridge the gap between specific component parameters and ultimate outcomes like existential catastrophe and long-term trajectory.

See the interactive AI transition model for a visual representation.

---

The Seven Root Factors

Loading diagram...

Root Factor	Description	Sub-components	Scenarios Influenced
Misalignment Potential	The potential for AI systems to be misaligned with human values - pursuing goals that diverge from human intentions. This encompasses technical alignment research, interpretability of AI reasoning, and robustness of safety measures. Lower misalignment potential reduces the risk of AI takeover.	—	All scenarios
AI Capabilities	How powerful and general AI systems become over time. This includes raw computational power, algorithmic efficiency, and breadth of deployment. More capable AI can bring greater benefits but also amplifies risks if safety doesn't keep pace.	—	All scenarios
AI Uses	Where and how AI is actually deployed in the economy and society. Key applications include recursive AI development (AI improving AI), integration into critical industries, government use for surveillance or military, and tools for coordination and decision-making.	—	All scenarios
AI Ownership	Who controls the most powerful AI systems and their outputs. Concentration among a few companies, countries, or individuals creates different risks than broad distribution. Ownership structure shapes incentives, accountability, and the distribution of AI benefits.	—	All scenarios
Civilizational Competence	Humanity's collective ability to understand AI risks, coordinate responses, and adapt institutions. This includes quality of governance, epistemic health of public discourse, and flexibility of economic and political systems. Higher competence enables better navigation of the AI transition.	—	All scenarios
Transition Turbulence	Background instability during the AI transition period. Economic disruption from automation, competitive racing dynamics between labs or nations, and social upheaval can create pressure that leads to hasty decisions or reduced safety margins.	—	All scenarios
Misuse Potential	The degree to which AI enables humans to cause deliberate harm at scale. This includes biological weapons development, cyber attacks, autonomous weapons, and novel threat vectors. Even well-aligned AI could be catastrophic if misused by malicious actors.	—	All scenarios

---

Factor Components

Each root factor contains multiple sub-components. Click through to explore each factor’s detailed breakdown.

Misalignment Potential

• Technical AI Safety
• AI Governance
• Lab Safety Practices

AI Capabilities

• Compute
• Algorithms
• Adoption

AI Uses

• Recursive AI Capabilities
• Industries
• Governments
• Coordination

AI Ownership

• Countries
• Companies
• Shareholders

Civilizational Competence

• Governance
• Epistemics
• Adaptability

Transition Turbulence

• Economic Stability
• Racing Intensity

Misuse Potential

• Biological Threat Exposure
• Cyber Threat Exposure
• Robot Threat Exposure
• Surprise Threat Exposure

---

Factor Impact on Scenarios

Each root factor affects the three scenarios differently. The grid below shows quantified impact scores (0-100) and direction:

Source → Target	AI Takeover	Human-Caused Catastrophe	Long-term Lock-in
Misalignment Potential	85↑	30↑	60↑
AI Capabilities	80↑	65↑	70↑
AI Uses	50↑	55↔	80↑
AI Ownership	40↔	45↔	85↑
Civilizational Competence	55↓	60↓	75↔
Transition Turbulence	45↑	55↑	40↑
Misuse Potential	25↑	90↑	35↑

Increases risk

Decreases risk

Mixed effect

Numbers = impact magnitude (0-100)

---

Related Pages

• Outcome Parameters — Ultimate outcomes these factors affect
• Scenarios — Intermediate pathways to outcomes
• AI Transition Model — Full model overview